Pablo Luna
Announced on Independence Day 2020, rapper, billionaire, and all-round entrepreneur Kanye West will be running for office in the US this year. The odds of the critically-acclaimed recording artist making it to the position of POTUS started long – 500/1 long.
Clearly, the bookmakers found the notion that West will gain in popularity enough to defeat the leading mainstream candidates, Trump and Biden, come November laughable. However, a subsequent dropping of the price shows that opinions are changing on the matter
In this article, we’ll discuss just whether the proposition really is that stupid. We’ll also compare a wager on Kanye to other so-called “stupid bets”. To bet on some of the examples below would be utterly ridiculous – much more so than a bet on West making it into the White House. Perhaps by the end, you might consider throwing a buck or two behind the rapper’s November bid.
Unlikely ?
Stranger Things Have Happened?
Our first example of a seemingly ridiculous bet coming in comes from the British premier league. If you know anything about the competition, you’ll realise that Leicester City has never really been in it in a meaningful way. The club’s previous highest ever Premiership finish was an eighth position back in the year 2000. That was until Leicester City shocked the soccer world in the 2015/16 season by winning the entire thing.
The news astounded just about everyone. British soccer legend, the Leicester-born Gary Linekar called the victory the “biggest sporting shock” of his lifetime, FIFA president Gianni Infantino called it a “fairytale” result. Even the city’s member of parliament Keith Vaz celebrated the victory as the “greatest day” in the Leicester’s history.
It wasn’t just soccer pundits and influential locals that were over the moon about the shock result though. Prior to the kick-off of the 15/16 league, the team was priced at an insane 5,000/1 to come away victorious. In fact, as bookmakers started accepting bets on that year’s action, the club was not even priced at all – the bet was so stupid that bookies hadn’t even bothered to accept bets on it yet. They were more than happy to take punts on the club being relegated though.
Fast forward to August 2015 and the start of the season. With sports fans making their forecasts for the year ahead, bookmakers finally dignified Leicester with a price – a whopping 5,000 to 1 to lift the trophy. It would remain that way for an entire month too – despite the eventual champions having won eight points in their first four games. Bookmakers actually considered the likelihood of the team winning the overall competition about equal to that of the late-king of rock and roll Elvis Presley being found alive and well.
The Elvis bet is clearly a ridiculous one. Aside from necromancy or news that Elvis’s corpse in Memphis Tennessee has been a fake for the last 50 years, it wasn’t going to happen. Despite Leicester City’s miserable performances in prior seasons, you’ve still got to favour their chances over something that for all intents and purposes is a scientific impossibility. That’s exactly what a handful of committed footballing fans did. Amongst them was long-time Leicester fan Leigh Herbert. He picked up around £20,000 from just a £5 bet. Even though a decision to cash out some of his wager early cost him about £5,000, we’re sure he was still over the moon with the freak result.
Other Stupid Bets…
The Leicester City example is one of the longest odds single bet victories in the history of sports. The bookmakers lost out there, particularly as the team’s winning ways continued and more punters backed them at shorter but still handsome prices.
However stupid betting on such an underdog seemed pre-season, with a full squad of players and a desire to win, there at least was some chance that the team would emerge victorious. The same cannot be said about this next couple of stupid bets.
Betting on the End of the World
In 2015, bookmakers showed how truly unscrupulous they can be by actually offering odds on how the world will end. The company behind the stupid betting proposition was SportsBet. It listed various potential planet-destroying means which could spell the end for humankind.
Amongst those listed (from lowest to highest odds) were: another ice age, a global drought, an incurable disease (poignant!), global flooding or tsunamis, a global super storm, huge earthquake, being swallowed by a black hole, an alien invasion, and being eaten alive by zombies. Interestingly, the final option, priced at 1,000 to 1, attracted the most traction. More than 60 people backed the zombie apocalypse scenario.
Of course, there are some major flaws with betting on the method by which the world ends. The chief of these is the issue of who is going to collect the winnings. You have to presume that faced with an apocalyptic event the bookmakers aren’t going to be open for business. It’s also a fair assumption that power infrastructures would have already gone offline too meaning that online receipt of winnings would be an impossibility too. With zero chance of being able to collect or pay winnings in the event that the selection does come in, as is often the case, the clear winner on this stupid bet was the bookmaker!
Managing from Beyond the Grave?
If you thought it was stupid to bet on something that by virtue of it coming true would render you unable to even collect your winnings, wait until you see our next ridiculous proposition. In 2017, Birmingham City soccer club were looking for a new manager. Amongst the hopeful was ex-Aston Villa and England player Ugo Ehiogu.
Priced at 66/1, the odds alone suggested that this one isn’t such a long-shot. However, there was one huge problem with the selection – Ehiogu is dead. The 44-year-old had suffered a fatal heart attack around five months prior to his listing as being in the running for the top job at Birmingham.
UK bookmakers Paddy Power were behind the erroneous listing. They were widely criticised on social media and were forced to apologise. Responding to those calling the proposition a sick joke, the betting company said the listing was a genuine error and it was quick to remove it.
That wasn’t the only ridiculous bet in that market though. Punters could also bet on local heavy rock legend Ozzy Osbourne taking the managerial role. Priced at 2,500/1, a dead man was briefly more likely to end up in the job!
Kanye and the Presidential Popularity Contest
To many political commentators, Kanye West seems like a ridiculous candidate to serve as President of the United States. However, given the state of the US right now, to see him take the position from Trump might not be as unlikely as you’d first think.
Firstly, Trump’s handling of key issues of late has seen him lose support from important demographics. Some are dissatisfied with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, others believe that trade issues involving China could have been dealt with better, and there is a lot of backlash against the Federal government’s use of force against protestors of late.
Yet Trump’s dwindling popularity doesn’t necessarily mean that Kanye will attract votes by default. There is another man in the running for the Republican Party’s main opposition. The previous darling of the anti-Trump vote was Joe Biden – a man who doesn’t seem to stand for a lot (other than being generally opposed to most of the things Trump is in favour of) and who exhibits some signs of his faculties fading in his twilight years.
Compare this to Kanye. He’s young, popular, and evidence from Trump’s election victory last time shows that the general public isn’t really that concerned about their president having a glittering political career prior to taking office. As a black candidate, he’ll almost automatically receive support. This will come not only from black voters but the growing numbers of those who identify with the Black Lives Matter organisation.
Kanye isn’t short of the cash vital to win an election campaign either. He’s a billionaire and did not inherit not win the money online. His sheer popularity started the ball rolling and his business sense and strategy meant he continued to generate wealth. These things will certainly play in his favour.
Kanye will also likely attract a lot of voters who don’t really care either way. Every election around half of the US population doesn’t turn out to vote. Amongst their ranks are a lot of black individuals who may feel underrepresented by the system and a lot of youngsters.
Now, ask yourself, of the three candidates we’ve just discussed, which way do you think these non-voters would vote if they engaged in the system? The old liberal guy? The old and increasingly unpopular guy? Or, the young candidate who sold 20 million albums? The fact that the price of a Kanye victory has already dropped from 500/1 when he first announced it to just 50/1 at some bookmakers suggests that he’s in with a better chance than Leicester City was or of a dead man taking a soccer manager job! One thing is for sure, it’ll be a very interesting election come November!
